What are the trends in emissions from road transport?

Globally, CO2 emissions from road transport have increased by over 25% since 1990 (WRI, 2002) and are continuing to increase. The IPCC emissions scenarios predict in emissions from transport may double or quadruple by 2050 (see figure 2) (IPCC, 2000).

Figure 2: IPCC Emissions Scenarios for Global CO2 Emission from Transportation

The proportion of total CO2 emissions resulting from of road transport is also slowly increasing. The EU reports that the share of global warming potential for which transport is responsible has increased from less than 20% to more than 25% (EC, 2002).

The fastest rate of increase is in developing countries with CO2 emissions from road transport increasing by around 60% since 1990 (WRI, 2002). In some developing countries, vehicle ownership is increasing by 15 to 20% per annum. There is the potential for massive increases in the next 10 to 20 years. Case studies undertaken by the Pew Centre estimate a fourfold to sevenfold increase in vehicle emissions in Shanghai by 2020 (Pew, 2002).

The pattern of vehicle ownership varies considerably between countries. Two-wheeler ownership, particularly in Asian countries, is increasing rapidly. Delhi has around 120 motorbikes per 1000 people, and Shanghai around 60 motorbikes and 500 bicycles per 1000 people. Interestingly, in cities in Latin America, such as Santiago and South Africa two-wheelers are relatively uncommon (Pew, 2002).

Within Europe the number of cars has trebled since 1970 and is still increasing by 3 million per annum. In European OECD countries, under the current policy regime, by 2015 there could be a 50% increase in road traffic (EC, 2002). The car stock in Europe could increase by 32% to 53% by 2020. In CIS countries the increase in numbers of cars and energy consumption may be far higher, between 140% and 515% by 2020, depending on policy measure to reduce emissions and technological development through market mechanisms (EC, 2002).